March 7, 2020

Overview

  • A curiousity timeline
  • Some COVID-19 information
  • A little R and some visualisations
  • Some modelling and estimation

Timeline

  • 22nd Jan: Whatsapp
    • Confirmed cases: 555
  • 25th Jan: Whatsapp
    • Confirmed cases: 1,434

John Hopkins Live Tracker Dashboard

Timeline

  • 22nd Jan: Whatsapp
    • Confirmed cases: 555
  • 25th Jan: Whatsapp
    • Confirmed cases: 1,434
  • 10th Feb: SatRday talk submission
    • Confirmed cases: 42,000

Timeline

  • 22nd Jan: Whatsapp
    • Confirmed cases: 555
  • 25th Jan: Whatsapp
    • Confirmed cases: 1,434
  • 10th Feb: SatRday talk submission
    • Confirmed cases: 42,000
  • 13th Feb: Prof.┬áVardas @NRF
    • Confirmed cases: 60,429

COVID-19

\(R_0\): The number of people, on average, that one sick person will infect. cboettig gist

COVID-19

COVID-19 Origins

COVID-19 Clinical Assessment (T8 -> T11)

Coronaviruses

6 already known to infect humans:

  • hCoV-OC63
  • hCoV-NL63
  • hCoV-HKU1
  • hCoV-229E

  • SARS-CoV 2002/2003 Guangdong, China
  • MERS-CoV 2012 Middle East (ongoing)

SARS

Easy numbers to remember:

  • Outbreak lasted 8 months
  • Confirmed cases: 8,000
  • Total deaths: 800

COVID-19

library(scales)
scale_y_continuous(label = comma)

COVID-19 Data

COVID-19 Latest

COVID-19 Latest (Mortality Rates)

Mortality Rates (China & !China)

FAIL

ggplot() + scale_y_log10()