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Introduction

Here I am going to experiment with EM algorithm for estimating parameters of ridge regression in different parameterizations. Derivations of EM updates are here The ones implemented here are 1,2, and 5 in that document. The others are a little more complex so I did not implement them yet.

Simple parameterization

\[y \sim N(Xb,s^2)\] \[b \sim N(0,s_b^2I)\]

ridge_em1 = function(y,X, s2,sb2, niter=10){
  XtX = t(X) %*% X
  Xty = t(X) %*% y
  yty = t(y) %*% y
  n = length(y)
  p = ncol(X)
  loglik = rep(0,niter)
  for(i in 1:niter){
    V = chol2inv(chol(XtX+ diag(s2/sb2,p))) 
    
    SigmaY = sb2 *(X %*% t(X)) + diag(s2,n)
    loglik[i] = mvtnorm::dmvnorm(as.vector(y),sigma = SigmaY,log=TRUE)
    
    Sigma1 = s2*V  # posterior variance of b
    mu1 = as.vector(V %*% Xty) # posterior mean of b
    
    s2 = as.vector((yty + sum(diag(XtX %*% (mu1 %*% t(mu1) + Sigma1)))- 2*sum(Xty*mu1))/n)
    sb2 = mean(mu1^2+diag(Sigma1))
   
  }
  return(list(s2=s2,sb2=sb2,loglik=loglik,postmean=mu1))
}

Scaled parameterization

In this parameterization I take the \(s_b\) out of the prior and put it \[y \sim N(s_b Xb,s^2)\] \[b \sim N(0,I)\].

ridge_em2 = function(y,X, s2,sb2, niter=10){
  XtX = t(X) %*% X
  Xty = t(X) %*% y
  yty = t(y) %*% y
  n = length(y)
  p = ncol(X)
  loglik = rep(0,niter)
  for(i in 1:niter){
    V = chol2inv(chol(XtX+ diag(s2/sb2,p))) 
    
    SigmaY = sb2 *(X %*% t(X)) + diag(s2,n)
    loglik[i] = mvtnorm::dmvnorm(as.vector(y),sigma = SigmaY,log=TRUE)
    
    Sigma1 = (s2/sb2)*V  # posterior variance of b
    mu1 = (sqrt(sb2)/s2)*as.vector(Sigma1 %*% Xty) # posterior mean of b
    
  
    s2 = as.vector((yty + sb2*sum(diag(XtX %*% (mu1 %*% t(mu1) + Sigma1)))- 2*sqrt(sb2)*sum(Xty*mu1))/n)
    sb2 = (sum(mu1*Xty)/sum(diag(XtX %*% (mu1 %*% t(mu1) + Sigma1))))^2
   
  }
  return(list(s2=s2,sb2=sb2,loglik=loglik,postmean=mu1*sqrt(sb2)))
}

A hybrid/redundant parameterization

Motivated by initial observations that 1 and 2 can converge well in different settings I implemented a hybrid of the two:

\[y \sim N(s_b Xb,s^2)\] \[b \sim N(0,\lambda^2).\] Note that there is a redundancy/non-identifiability here as the likelihood depends only on \(s_b^2 \lambda^2\). The hope is to get the best of both worlds…

ridge_em3 = function(y,X, s2, sb2, l2, niter=10){
  XtX = t(X) %*% X
  Xty = t(X) %*% y
  yty = t(y) %*% y
  n = length(y)
  p = ncol(X)
  loglik = rep(0,niter)
  for(i in 1:niter){
    V = chol2inv(chol(XtX+ diag(s2/(sb2*l2),p))) 
    
    SigmaY = l2*sb2 *(X %*% t(X)) + diag(s2,n)
    loglik[i] = mvtnorm::dmvnorm(as.vector(y),sigma = SigmaY,log=TRUE)
    
    Sigma1 = (s2/sb2)*V  # posterior variance of b
    mu1 = (1/sqrt(sb2))*as.vector(V %*% Xty) # posterior mean of b
    
    s2 = as.vector((yty + sb2*sum(diag(XtX %*% (mu1 %*% t(mu1) + Sigma1)))- 2*sqrt(sb2)*sum(Xty*mu1))/n)
    sb2 = (sum(mu1*Xty)/sum(diag(XtX %*% (mu1 %*% t(mu1) + Sigma1))))^2
    
    l2 = mean(mu1^2+diag(Sigma1))
   
  }
  return(list(s2=s2,sb2=sb2,l2=l2,loglik=loglik,postmean=mu1*sqrt(sb2)))
}

Simple Simulations

This is a simple simulation with independent design matrix I used while debugging.

High signal:

set.seed(100)
sd = 1
n = 100
p = n
X = matrix(rnorm(n*p),ncol=n)
btrue = rnorm(n)
y = X %*% btrue + sd*rnorm(n)

plot(y)
lines(X %*% btrue)

Version Author Date
b637a05 Matthew Stephens 2020-05-29
y.em1 = ridge_em1(y,X,1,1,100)
y.em2 = ridge_em2(y,X,1,1,100)
y.em3 = ridge_em3(y,X,1,1,1,100)

plot_loglik = function(y.em1,y.em2,y.em3=NULL){
  plot(y.em1$loglik,ylim=c(min(y.em1$loglik),max(c(y.em1$loglik,y.em2$loglik))),type="l",xlim=c(0,max(length(y.em2$loglik),length(y.em1$loglik))))
lines(y.em2$loglik,col=2)
if(!is.null(y.em3)){
  lines(y.em3$loglik,col=3)
}
}
plot_loglik(y.em1,y.em2,y.em3)

Version Author Date
b637a05 Matthew Stephens 2020-05-29

Same again with no signal:

btrue = rep(0,n)
y = X %*% btrue + sd*rnorm(n)

plot(y)
lines(X %*% btrue)

Version Author Date
b637a05 Matthew Stephens 2020-05-29
y.em1 = ridge_em1(y,X,1,1,100)
y.em2 = ridge_em2(y,X,1,1,100)
y.em3 = ridge_em3(y,X,1,1,1,100)

plot_loglik = function(y.em1,y.em2,y.em3=NULL){
  plot(y.em1$loglik,ylim=c(min(y.em1$loglik),max(c(y.em1$loglik,y.em2$loglik))),type="l",xlim=c(0,max(length(y.em2$loglik),length(y.em1$loglik))))
lines(y.em2$loglik,col=2)
if(!is.null(y.em3)){
  lines(y.em3$loglik,col=3)
}
}
plot_loglik(y.em1,y.em2,y.em3)

Trendfiltering Simulations

This is more challenging example (in that the design matrix is correlated)

High Signal

set.seed(100)
sd = 1
n = 100
p = n
X = matrix(0,nrow=n,ncol=n)
for(i in 1:n){
  X[i:n,i] = 1:(n-i+1)
}
btrue = rep(0,n)
btrue[40] = 8
btrue[41] = -8
y = X %*% btrue + sd*rnorm(n)

plot(y)
lines(X %*% btrue)

y.em1 = ridge_em1(y,X,1,1,100)
lines(X %*% y.em1$postmean,col=1)

y.em2 = ridge_em2(y,X,1,1,100)
lines(X %*% y.em2$postmean,col=2)

y.em3 = ridge_em3(y,X,1,1,1,100)
lines(X %*% y.em3$postmean,col=3)

Version Author Date
b637a05 Matthew Stephens 2020-05-29

Look at the likelihoods:

plot_loglik(y.em1,y.em2,y.em3)

Version Author Date
b637a05 Matthew Stephens 2020-05-29

Run the second one longer and check it:

y.em2 = ridge_em2(y,X,1,1,1000)
plot_loglik(y.em1,y.em2,y.em3)

Version Author Date
b637a05 Matthew Stephens 2020-05-29
y.em1$sb2
[1] 0.02203472
y.em2$sb2
[1] 0.02305205
y.em3$sb2*y.em3$l2
[1] 0.02189396
y.em1$s2
[1] 1.612878
y.em2$s2
[1] 1.60691
y.em3$s2
[1] 1.613796

Try starting \(s\) in wrong place

y.em1 = ridge_em1(y,X,10,1,100)
y.em2 = ridge_em2(y,X,10,1,100)

plot_loglik(y.em1,y.em2)

Try starting \(s2\) in wrong place

y.em1 = ridge_em1(y,X,1,10,100)
y.em2 = ridge_em2(y,X,1,10,100)

plot_loglik(y.em1,y.em2)

Try starting \(s2\) in wrong place

y.em1 = ridge_em1(y,X,.1,10,100)
y.em2 = ridge_em2(y,X,.1,10,100)

plot_loglik(y.em1,y.em2)

No signal case

Try no signal case – the convergence issues are reversed!

sd = 1
n = 100
p = n
X = matrix(0,nrow=n,ncol=n)
for(i in 1:n){
  X[i:n,i] = 1:(n-i+1)
}
btrue = rep(0,n)

y = X %*% btrue + sd*rnorm(n)

plot(y)
lines(X %*% btrue)

y.em1 = ridge_em1(y,X,1,1,100)
lines(X %*% y.em1$postmean,col=1)

y.em2 = ridge_em2(y,X,1,1,100)
lines(X %*% y.em2$postmean,col=2)

y.em3 = ridge_em3(y,X,1,1,1,100)
lines(X %*% y.em3$postmean,col=3)

The EM2 and EM3 converge faster here:

plot_loglik(y.em1,y.em2,y.em3)

Try starting the expanded algorithm from very large lambda… it still seems to work.

y.em3b = ridge_em3(y,X,1,1,100,100)
plot_loglik(y.em1,y.em2,y.em3b)


sessionInfo()
R version 3.6.0 (2019-04-26)
Platform: x86_64-apple-darwin15.6.0 (64-bit)
Running under: macOS Mojave 10.14.6

Matrix products: default
BLAS:   /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/3.6/Resources/lib/libRblas.0.dylib
LAPACK: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/3.6/Resources/lib/libRlapack.dylib

locale:
[1] en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/C/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8

attached base packages:
[1] stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets  methods   base     

loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
 [1] workflowr_1.6.1 Rcpp_1.0.4.6    mvtnorm_1.1-0   rprojroot_1.3-2
 [5] digest_0.6.25   later_1.0.0     R6_2.4.1        backports_1.1.5
 [9] git2r_0.26.1    magrittr_1.5    evaluate_0.14   stringi_1.4.6  
[13] rlang_0.4.5     fs_1.3.2        promises_1.1.0  whisker_0.4    
[17] rmarkdown_2.1   tools_3.6.0     stringr_1.4.0   glue_1.4.0     
[21] httpuv_1.5.2    xfun_0.12       yaml_2.2.1      compiler_3.6.0 
[25] htmltools_0.4.0 knitr_1.28